1—The ‘Smart Money’ Flipped on Overall Control
Betting markets are often a better predictor of elections than polls, and the so-called smart money on the midterms swung behind the Republicans gaining control of both the House and the Senate.
But on November 8, that switched. The day before, a Republican Senate and House was priced at 74 cents—in other words, a 74 percent chance. By election day, that had dropped to 19 cents, with a Republican House and Democrat Senate priced up at 64 percent.
The Republican House and Senate odds had been above 60 cents since October 19, all the way to November 7. In this instance, the adage of following the money wasn’t necessarily correct.
2—Trump Is More Unpopular With Republican Voters than Biden Is with Democrats
Overall, voters have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump with both viewed unfavorably by more than half of voters. What’s interesting is how that breaks down by party lines.
Of those with an unfavorable view of Biden, 14 percent are Democrat voters.
Conversely, 20 percent of those with an unfavorable view of Trump are Republican voters.
In other words, both have a small but substantial group of voters disaffected with either leader; but Trump’s is bigger.
Source: NBC Exit Poll
3—Herschel Walker Won a LOT of Anti-Abortion Voters
Walker, the Republican contender for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, was beset on the campaign trial by allegations of paying for abortions with two women, despite his anti-abortion stance.
Republican voters didn’t seem to mind: 84 percent of voters who think abortion should be illegal in all cases voted for him.
Source: CNN Exit Poll for Georgia
4—John Fetterman Defied November’s Polls
Democrat John Fetterman won in Pennsylvania, holding off the challenge of Mehmet Oz. Fetterman had established a big lead in the polls up until late October, when the race tightened. Since October 31, Oz won five of the last six polls, although none by more than three points. Fetterman was given a boost by a six-point margin in one poll in November, but that overstated his win which, at time of writing, is around 2.5 percent.
5—Gun Control, Abortion and Immigration Have Almost Identical Scores Along Party Lines
Guns, abortion, immigration: all three evoke strong reactions with voters. What is interesting is that all three are pretty much equal across party lines.
For example, Democrats make up 73 percent of those who think abortion should be legal; 75 percent of those who think immigrants help the country; and 76 percent of those in favor of stricter gun control. That’s a very consistent score of around three-quarters.
For Republicans, a similar picture emerges. They make up 89 percent of those who think abortion should be illegal; 83 percent of those who think immigration harms the country; and 88 percent of those who oppose stricter gun control.
6—Marriage Is a Big Indicator of Voting
Are you married? If so, you’re more likely to vote Republican, with 58 percent voting GOP. Conversely, 59 percent of not-married voters went Democrat.
Source: CNN Exit Poll
7—There Are Lots of Republicans in Unions
Voters were asked the question “Does anyone in your household belong to a labor union?”. Of those replying yes, 42 percent voted Republican. Union membership doesn’t always equal Democrat voter.
Source: NBC Exit Poll
